Association between psychological distress trajectories from adolescence to midlife and mental health during the pandemic: evidence from two British birth cohorts.

BACKGROUND: This paper examined whether distinct life-course trajectories of psychological distress from adolescence to midlife were associated with poorer mental health outcomes during the pandemic. METHODS: We present a secondary analysis of two nationally representative British birth cohorts, the 1958 National Child Development Study (NCDS) and 1970 British Cohort Study (BCS70). We used latent variable mixture models to identify pre-pandemic longitudinal trajectories of psychological distress and a modified Poisson model with robust standard errors to estimate associations with psychological distress, life satisfaction and loneliness at different points during the pandemic. RESULTS: Our analysis identified five distinct pre-pandemic trajectories of psychological distress in both cohorts. All trajectories with prior symptoms of psychological distress irrespective of age of onset, severity and chronicity were associated with a greater relative risk of poorer mental health outcomes during the pandemic and the probability of poorer mental health associated with psychological distress trajectories remained fairly constant. The relationship was not fully attenuated when most recent pre-pandemic psychological distress and other midlife factors were controlled for. CONCLUSIONS: Whilst life-course trajectories with any prior symptoms of psychological distress put individuals at greater risk of poor mental health outcomes during the pandemic, those with chronic and more recent occurrences were at highest risk. In addition, prior poor mental health during the adult life-course may mean individuals are less resilient to shocks, such as pandemics. Our findings show the importance of considering heterogeneous mental health trajectories across the life-course in the general population in addition to population average trends.

Adult life-course trajectories of psychological distress and economic outcomes in midlife during the COVID-19 pandemic: evidence from the 1958 and 1970 British birth cohorts.

PURPOSE: Financial adversity in times of economic recession have been shown to have an unequal effect on individuals with prior mental health problems. This study investigated the relationship between mental health groupings across the adult life-course and change in financial situation and employment status during the COVID-19 pandemic, as well as the use of financial measures to mitigate the economic shock. METHODS: Using two nationally representative British birth cohorts, the National Child Development Study (1958) n = 17,415 and 1970 British Cohort Study n = 17,198, we identified 5 different life-course trajectories of psychological distress from adolescence to midlife which were similar but not identical across the two cohorts. We explored their relation to changes in financial and employment circumstances at different stages during the pandemic from May 2020 to March 2021, applying multinomial logistic regression and controlling for numerous early life covariates, including family socio-economic status (SES). In addition, we ran modified Poisson models with robust standard errors to identify whether different mental health trajectories were supported by government and used other methods to mitigate their financial situation. RESULTS: We found that the financial circumstances of pre-pandemic trajectories of psychological distress with differential onset, severity, and chronicity across the life-course were exacerbated by the COVID-19 economic shock. The 'stable-high' (persistent severe symptoms) and 'adult-onset' (symptoms developing in 30s, but later decreasing) groups were vulnerable to job loss. Compared to pre-pandemic trajectory groupings with no, minor, or psychological distress symptoms in early adulthood, the 'stable-high', 'midlife-onset' (symptoms developing in midlife), and 'adult-onset' trajectory groups were more likely to seek support from the UK governments economic response package. However, trajectories with pre-pandemic psychological distress were also at greater risk of reducing consumption, dis-saving, relying on increased financial help from family and friends, and also taking payment holidays (agreements with lenders to pause mortgage, credit card or loan payments for a set period) and borrowing. CONCLUSION: This work highlights different trajectories of pre-pandemic psychological distress, compared to groups with no symptoms were more vulnerable to pandemic-related economic shock and job loss. By adopting unsustainable mitigating measures (borrowing and payment holidays) to support their financial circumstances during COVID-19, these mental health trajectories are at even more risk of lasting adverse impacts and future economic difficulties.

Substance use behaviours and the UK furlough scheme: evidence from eight longitudinal population surveys

Disruptions to economic activity such as job loss can impact substance use behaviours. During the COVID-19 pandemic many countries implemented a furlough scheme to prevent job loss. We examine how furlough was associated with respondents' substance use behaviours in the initial stages of the pandemic in the UK. Data were from over 27,000 participants in eight adult longitudinal surveys. Participants self-reported economic activity (furlough or job loss vs stable employment) and smoking (any current), vaping (any current) and drinking alcohol (>4 days/week or 5+ drinks per typical occasion) both before and during the initial stages of the pandemic. Changes in frequency/quantity of substance use were also examined. Risk ratios were estimated within each study using modified Poisson regression, adjusting for a range of potential confounders, including pre-pandemic behaviour (though this was excluded in analyses of behaviour change). Findings were synthesised using a random effects meta-analysis. Compared to stable employment, participation in the furlough scheme was associated with smoking (risk ratio: 1.24 [95% CI: 1.08-1.42];I2=0%) while job loss was associated with vaping (1.72 [1.10-2.71];I2=25%) and heavier drinking (1.21 [1.02-1.43];I2=2%), but these associations were largely accounted for by confounders (adjusted risk ratios: smoking: 1.06 [0.96-1.16];I2=8%;vaping: 1.55 [0.93-2.56];I2=42%;and drinking: 1.03 [0.89-1.20];I2=35%). Furlough was associated with drinking more than before the pandemic (adjusted risk ratio: 1.15 [1.00-1.33];I2=70%), and with increases in vaping behaviour (1.54 [1.14-2.07];I2=0%). Increased drinking associated with furlough is concerning, while increased vaping likely represents moves to reduce smoking and may be positive.